AustralieFrV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000356

Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study

Identifieur interne : 000356 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000355; suivant : 000357

Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study

Auteurs : Moritz U G. Kraemer [Royaume-Uni] ; Nuno R. Faria [Royaume-Uni] ; Robert C. Reiner [États-Unis] ; Nick Golding [Royaume-Uni, Australie] ; Birgit Nikolay [France] ; Stephanie Stasse ; Michael A. Johansson [États-Unis] ; Henrik Salje [France, États-Unis] ; Ousmane Faye [Sénégal] ; G R William Wint [Royaume-Uni] ; Matthias Niedrig [Allemagne] ; Freya M. Shearer [Royaume-Uni] ; Sarah C. Hill [Royaume-Uni] ; Robin N. Thompson [Royaume-Uni] ; Donal Bisanzio [Royaume-Uni] ; Nuno Taveira [Portugal] ; Heinrich H. Nax [Suisse] ; Bary S R. Pradelski [Suisse] ; Elaine O. Nsoesie [États-Unis] ; Nicholas R. Murphy [États-Unis] ; Isaac I. Bogoch [Canada] ; Kamran Khan [Canada] ; John S. Brownstein [États-Unis] ; Andrew J. Tatem [Royaume-Uni, Suède] ; Tulio De Oliveira [Afrique du Sud] ; David L. Smith [Royaume-Uni, États-Unis] ; Amadou A. Sall [Sénégal] ; Oliver G. Pybus [Royaume-Uni] ; Simon I. Hay [États-Unis, Royaume-Uni] ; Simon Cauchemez [France]

Source :

The Lancet. Infectious Diseases [ 1473-3099 ] ; 2017.

RBID : PMC:5332542

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Aedes (virologie), Angola, Animaux, Calendrier vaccinal, Fièvre jaune (mortalité), Fièvre jaune (transmission), Fièvre jaune (épidémiologie), Flambées de maladies (), Humains, Modèles statistiques, Population rurale (), Population urbaine (), République démocratique du Congo, Vaccination, Virus de la fièvre jaune (isolement et purification), Voyage.
MESH :
- isolement et purification : Virus de la fièvre jaune.
- mortalité : Fièvre jaune.
- virologie : Aedes.
- épidémiologie : Fièvre jaune.
- Angola, Animaux, Calendrier vaccinal, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Population rurale, Population urbaine, République démocratique du Congo, Vaccination, Voyage.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Aedes (virology), Angola, Animals, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Humans, Immunization Schedule, Models, Statistical, Rural Population (statistics & numerical data), Travel, Urban Population (statistics & numerical data), Vaccination, Yellow Fever (epidemiology), Yellow Fever (mortality), Yellow Fever (transmission), Yellow fever virus (isolation & purification).
MESH :
- epidemiology : Yellow Fever.
- isolation & purification : Yellow fever virus.
- mortality : Yellow Fever.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks.
- statistics & numerical data : Rural Population, Urban Population.
- transmission : Yellow Fever.
- virology : Aedes.
- Angola, Animals, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Humans, Immunization Schedule, Models, Statistical, Travel, Vaccination.

Abstract

SummaryBackground

Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock.

Methods

We jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region.

Findings

The early spread of yellow fever virus was characterised by fast exponential growth (doubling time of 5–7 days) and fast spatial expansion (49 districts reported cases after only 3 months) from Luanda, the capital of Angola. Early invasion was positively correlated with high population density (Pearson's r 0·52, 95% CI 0·34–0·66). The further away locations were from Luanda, the later the date of invasion (Pearson's r 0·60, 95% CI 0·52–0·66). In a Cox model, we noted that districts with higher population densities also had higher risks of sustained transmission (the hazard ratio for cases ceasing was 0·74, 95% CI 0·13–0·92 per log-unit increase in the population size of a district). A model that captured human mobility and vector suitability successfully discriminated districts with high risk of invasion from others with a lower risk (area under the curve 0·94, 95% CI 0·92–0·97). If at the start of the epidemic, sufficient vaccines had been available to target 50 out of 313 districts in the area, our model would have correctly identified 27 (84%) of the 32 districts that were eventually affected.

Interpretation

Our findings show the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the yellow fever outbreak and provide estimates of the areas that could be prioritised for vaccination, although other constraints such as vaccine supply and delivery need to be accounted for before such insights can be translated into policy.

Funding

Wellcome Trust.

Url:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5332542

DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30513-8
PubMed: 28017559
PubMed Central: 5332542

Affiliations:

Afrique du Sud, Allemagne, Australie, Canada, France, Portugal, Royaume-Uni, Suisse, Suède, Sénégal, États-Unis
Angleterre, Berlin, Californie, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oxfordshire, Svealand, Victoria (État), Washington (État), Île-de-France
Berlin, Melbourne, Oxford, Paris, Seattle, Stockholm
Université d'Oxford, Université de Melbourne, Université de Washington

Le document en format XML

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<author><name sortKey="Murphy, Nicholas R" sort="Murphy, Nicholas R" uniqKey="Murphy N" first="Nicholas R" last="Murphy">Nicholas R. Murphy</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Khan, Kamran" sort="Khan, Kamran" uniqKey="Khan K" first="Kamran" last="Khan">Kamran Khan</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Brownstein, John S" sort="Brownstein, John S" uniqKey="Brownstein J" first="John S" last="Brownstein">John S. Brownstein</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Tatem, Andrew J" sort="Tatem, Andrew J" uniqKey="Tatem A" first="Andrew J" last="Tatem">Andrew J. Tatem</name>
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<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff22">Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Smith, David L" sort="Smith, David L" uniqKey="Smith D" first="David L" last="Smith">David L. Smith</name>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study</title>
<author><name sortKey="Kraemer, Moritz U G" sort="Kraemer, Moritz U G" uniqKey="Kraemer M" first="Moritz U G" last="Kraemer">Moritz U G. Kraemer</name>
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<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
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</author>
<author><name sortKey="Faria, Nuno R" sort="Faria, Nuno R" uniqKey="Faria N" first="Nuno R" last="Faria">Nuno R. Faria</name>
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<wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
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<author><name sortKey="Reiner, Robert C" sort="Reiner, Robert C" uniqKey="Reiner R" first="Robert C" last="Reiner">Robert C. Reiner</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Golding, Nick" sort="Golding, Nick" uniqKey="Golding N" first="Nick" last="Golding">Nick Golding</name>
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<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
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<region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia</nlm:aff>
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</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nikolay, Birgit" sort="Nikolay, Birgit" uniqKey="Nikolay B" first="Birgit" last="Nikolay">Birgit Nikolay</name>
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<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
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</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA 3012, Paris, France</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
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</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Stasse, Stephanie" sort="Stasse, Stephanie" uniqKey="Stasse S" first="Stephanie" last="Stasse">Stephanie Stasse</name>
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</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Johansson, Michael A" sort="Johansson, Michael A" uniqKey="Johansson M" first="Michael A" last="Johansson">Michael A. Johansson</name>
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<wicri:regionArea>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, PR</wicri:regionArea>
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<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff9">Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, MA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, MA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Salje, Henrik" sort="Salje, Henrik" uniqKey="Salje H" first="Henrik" last="Salje">Henrik Salje</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases and Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
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</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA 3012, Paris, France</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA 3012, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff11">Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Faye, Ousmane" sort="Faye, Ousmane" uniqKey="Faye O" first="Ousmane" last="Faye">Ousmane Faye</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Unit, Institut Pasteur da Dakar, Dakar, Senegal</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Sénégal</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Unit, Institut Pasteur da Dakar, Dakar</wicri:regionArea>
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</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wint, G R William" sort="Wint, G R William" uniqKey="Wint G" first="G R William" last="Wint">G R William Wint</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff13">Environmental Research Group Oxford, Department of Zoology, Oxford, UK</nlm:aff>
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<wicri:regionArea>Environmental Research Group Oxford, Department of Zoology, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
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</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Niedrig, Matthias" sort="Niedrig, Matthias" uniqKey="Niedrig M" first="Matthias" last="Niedrig">Matthias Niedrig</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff14">Robert Koch Institut, Berlin, Germany</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institut, Berlin</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region>
<settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shearer, Freya M" sort="Shearer, Freya M" uniqKey="Shearer F" first="Freya M" last="Shearer">Freya M. Shearer</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
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</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hill, Sarah C" sort="Hill, Sarah C" uniqKey="Hill S" first="Sarah C" last="Hill">Sarah C. Hill</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK</nlm:aff>
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<wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
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<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Thompson, Robin N" sort="Thompson, Robin N" uniqKey="Thompson R" first="Robin N" last="Thompson">Robin N. Thompson</name>
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<wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
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<region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region>
<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bisanzio, Donal" sort="Bisanzio, Donal" uniqKey="Bisanzio D" first="Donal" last="Bisanzio">Donal Bisanzio</name>
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<wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
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<region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region>
<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Taveira, Nuno" sort="Taveira, Nuno" uniqKey="Taveira N" first="Nuno" last="Taveira">Nuno Taveira</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Portugal</country>
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<wicri:noRegion>University of Lisbon</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff16">Centro de Investigacao Interdisciplinar Egas Moniz, Instituto Superior de Ciencias da Saude Egas Moniz, Caparica, Portugal</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Portugal</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centro de Investigacao Interdisciplinar Egas Moniz, Instituto Superior de Ciencias da Saude Egas Moniz, Caparica</wicri:regionArea>
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</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nax, Heinrich H" sort="Nax, Heinrich H" uniqKey="Nax H" first="Heinrich H" last="Nax">Heinrich H. Nax</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Computational Social Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich</wicri:regionArea>
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</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pradelski, Bary S R" sort="Pradelski, Bary S R" uniqKey="Pradelski B" first="Bary S R" last="Pradelski">Bary S R. Pradelski</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff17">Computational Social Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Computational Social Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Zurich</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nsoesie, Elaine O" sort="Nsoesie, Elaine O" uniqKey="Nsoesie E" first="Elaine O" last="Nsoesie">Elaine O. Nsoesie</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
<settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Murphy, Nicholas R" sort="Murphy, Nicholas R" uniqKey="Murphy N" first="Nicholas R" last="Murphy">Nicholas R. Murphy</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff18">School of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Californie</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bogoch, Isaac I" sort="Bogoch, Isaac I" uniqKey="Bogoch I" first="Isaac I" last="Bogoch">Isaac I. Bogoch</name>
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<wicri:regionArea>Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON</wicri:regionArea>
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</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Khan, Kamran" sort="Khan, Kamran" uniqKey="Khan K" first="Kamran" last="Khan">Kamran Khan</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>ON</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Brownstein, John S" sort="Brownstein, John S" uniqKey="Brownstein J" first="John S" last="Brownstein">John S. Brownstein</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff10">Harvard University Medical School Boston, MA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Harvard University Medical School Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tatem, Andrew J" sort="Tatem, Andrew J" uniqKey="Tatem A" first="Andrew J" last="Tatem">Andrew J. Tatem</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff21">WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>WorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Southampton</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff22">Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Svealand</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="De Oliveira, Tulio" sort="De Oliveira, Tulio" uniqKey="De Oliveira T" first="Tulio" last="De Oliveira">Tulio De Oliveira</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Durban</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Smith, David L" sort="Smith, David L" uniqKey="Smith D" first="David L" last="Smith">David L. Smith</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region>
<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
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<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
<settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName>
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<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff24">Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, MD, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sall, Amadou A" sort="Sall, Amadou A" uniqKey="Sall A" first="Amadou A" last="Sall">Amadou A. Sall</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Unit, Institut Pasteur da Dakar, Dakar, Senegal</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Sénégal</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Arbovirus and Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Unit, Institut Pasteur da Dakar, Dakar</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Dakar</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pybus, Oliver G" sort="Pybus, Oliver G" uniqKey="Pybus O" first="Oliver G" last="Pybus">Oliver G. Pybus</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
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<region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region>
<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hay, Simon I" sort="Hay, Simon I" uniqKey="Hay S" first="Simon I" last="Hay">Simon I. Hay</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
<settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford, UK</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases and Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases and Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff6">Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA 3012, Paris, France</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA 3012, Paris</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region>
<region type="old region">Île-de-France</region>
<settlement type="city">Paris</settlement>
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</analytic>
<series><title level="j">The Lancet. Infectious Diseases</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1473-3099</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1474-4457</idno>
<imprint><date when="2017">2017</date>
</imprint>
</series>
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</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aedes (virology)</term>
<term>Angola</term>
<term>Animals</term>
<term>Democratic Republic of the Congo</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Immunization Schedule</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Rural Population (statistics & numerical data)</term>
<term>Travel</term>
<term>Urban Population (statistics & numerical data)</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
<term>Yellow Fever (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Yellow Fever (mortality)</term>
<term>Yellow Fever (transmission)</term>
<term>Yellow fever virus (isolation & purification)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Aedes (virologie)</term>
<term>Angola</term>
<term>Animaux</term>
<term>Calendrier vaccinal</term>
<term>Fièvre jaune (mortalité)</term>
<term>Fièvre jaune (transmission)</term>
<term>Fièvre jaune (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies ()</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Population rurale ()</term>
<term>Population urbaine ()</term>
<term>République démocratique du Congo</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
<term>Virus de la fièvre jaune (isolement et purification)</term>
<term>Voyage</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Yellow Fever</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>Yellow fever virus</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolement et purification" xml:lang="fr"><term>Virus de la fièvre jaune</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Yellow Fever</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Fièvre jaune</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Rural Population</term>
<term>Urban Population</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Yellow Fever</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Aedes</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Aedes</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Fièvre jaune</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Angola</term>
<term>Animals</term>
<term>Democratic Republic of the Congo</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Immunization Schedule</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Travel</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Angola</term>
<term>Animaux</term>
<term>Calendrier vaccinal</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Population rurale</term>
<term>Population urbaine</term>
<term>République démocratique du Congo</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
<term>Voyage</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title>
<sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>We jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Findings</title>
<p>The early spread of yellow fever virus was characterised by fast exponential growth (doubling time of 5–7 days) and fast spatial expansion (49 districts reported cases after only 3 months) from Luanda, the capital of Angola. Early invasion was positively correlated with high population density (Pearson's <italic>r</italic>
 0·52, 95% CI 0·34–0·66). The further away locations were from Luanda, the later the date of invasion (Pearson's <italic>r</italic>
 0·60, 95% CI 0·52–0·66). In a Cox model, we noted that districts with higher population densities also had higher risks of sustained transmission (the hazard ratio for cases ceasing was 0·74, 95% CI 0·13–0·92 per log-unit increase in the population size of a district). A model that captured human mobility and vector suitability successfully discriminated districts with high risk of invasion from others with a lower risk (area under the curve 0·94, 95% CI 0·92–0·97). If at the start of the epidemic, sufficient vaccines had been available to target 50 out of 313 districts in the area, our model would have correctly identified 27 (84%) of the 32 districts that were eventually affected.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Interpretation</title>
<p>Our findings show the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the yellow fever outbreak and provide estimates of the areas that could be prioritised for vaccination, although other constraints such as vaccine supply and delivery need to be accounted for before such insights can be translated into policy.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Funding</title>
<p>Wellcome Trust.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Afrique du Sud</li>
<li>Allemagne</li>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>Canada</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>Portugal</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
<li>Suisse</li>
<li>Suède</li>
<li>Sénégal</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region><li>Angleterre</li>
<li>Berlin</li>
<li>Californie</li>
<li>Maryland</li>
<li>Massachusetts</li>
<li>Oxfordshire</li>
<li>Svealand</li>
<li>Victoria (État)</li>
<li>Washington (État)</li>
<li>Île-de-France</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Berlin</li>
<li>Melbourne</li>
<li>Oxford</li>
<li>Paris</li>
<li>Seattle</li>
<li>Stockholm</li>
</settlement>
<orgName><li>Université d'Oxford</li>
<li>Université de Melbourne</li>
<li>Université de Washington</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Stasse, Stephanie" sort="Stasse, Stephanie" uniqKey="Stasse S" first="Stephanie" last="Stasse">Stephanie Stasse</name>
</noCountry>
<country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Kraemer, Moritz U G" sort="Kraemer, Moritz U G" uniqKey="Kraemer M" first="Moritz U G" last="Kraemer">Moritz U G. Kraemer</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Bisanzio, Donal" sort="Bisanzio, Donal" uniqKey="Bisanzio D" first="Donal" last="Bisanzio">Donal Bisanzio</name>
<name sortKey="Faria, Nuno R" sort="Faria, Nuno R" uniqKey="Faria N" first="Nuno R" last="Faria">Nuno R. Faria</name>
<name sortKey="Golding, Nick" sort="Golding, Nick" uniqKey="Golding N" first="Nick" last="Golding">Nick Golding</name>
<name sortKey="Hay, Simon I" sort="Hay, Simon I" uniqKey="Hay S" first="Simon I" last="Hay">Simon I. Hay</name>
<name sortKey="Hill, Sarah C" sort="Hill, Sarah C" uniqKey="Hill S" first="Sarah C" last="Hill">Sarah C. Hill</name>
<name sortKey="Pybus, Oliver G" sort="Pybus, Oliver G" uniqKey="Pybus O" first="Oliver G" last="Pybus">Oliver G. Pybus</name>
<name sortKey="Shearer, Freya M" sort="Shearer, Freya M" uniqKey="Shearer F" first="Freya M" last="Shearer">Freya M. Shearer</name>
<name sortKey="Smith, David L" sort="Smith, David L" uniqKey="Smith D" first="David L" last="Smith">David L. Smith</name>
<name sortKey="Tatem, Andrew J" sort="Tatem, Andrew J" uniqKey="Tatem A" first="Andrew J" last="Tatem">Andrew J. Tatem</name>
<name sortKey="Thompson, Robin N" sort="Thompson, Robin N" uniqKey="Thompson R" first="Robin N" last="Thompson">Robin N. Thompson</name>
<name sortKey="Wint, G R William" sort="Wint, G R William" uniqKey="Wint G" first="G R William" last="Wint">G R William Wint</name>
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<country name="États-Unis"><region name="Washington (État)"><name sortKey="Reiner, Robert C" sort="Reiner, Robert C" uniqKey="Reiner R" first="Robert C" last="Reiner">Robert C. Reiner</name>
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<name sortKey="Brownstein, John S" sort="Brownstein, John S" uniqKey="Brownstein J" first="John S" last="Brownstein">John S. Brownstein</name>
<name sortKey="Hay, Simon I" sort="Hay, Simon I" uniqKey="Hay S" first="Simon I" last="Hay">Simon I. Hay</name>
<name sortKey="Johansson, Michael A" sort="Johansson, Michael A" uniqKey="Johansson M" first="Michael A" last="Johansson">Michael A. Johansson</name>
<name sortKey="Johansson, Michael A" sort="Johansson, Michael A" uniqKey="Johansson M" first="Michael A" last="Johansson">Michael A. Johansson</name>
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<name sortKey="Nsoesie, Elaine O" sort="Nsoesie, Elaine O" uniqKey="Nsoesie E" first="Elaine O" last="Nsoesie">Elaine O. Nsoesie</name>
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<name sortKey="Smith, David L" sort="Smith, David L" uniqKey="Smith D" first="David L" last="Smith">David L. Smith</name>
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<country name="Australie"><region name="Victoria (État)"><name sortKey="Golding, Nick" sort="Golding, Nick" uniqKey="Golding N" first="Nick" last="Golding">Nick Golding</name>
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<name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
<name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
<name sortKey="Nikolay, Birgit" sort="Nikolay, Birgit" uniqKey="Nikolay B" first="Birgit" last="Nikolay">Birgit Nikolay</name>
<name sortKey="Salje, Henrik" sort="Salje, Henrik" uniqKey="Salje H" first="Henrik" last="Salje">Henrik Salje</name>
<name sortKey="Salje, Henrik" sort="Salje, Henrik" uniqKey="Salje H" first="Henrik" last="Salje">Henrik Salje</name>
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<country name="Sénégal"><noRegion><name sortKey="Faye, Ousmane" sort="Faye, Ousmane" uniqKey="Faye O" first="Ousmane" last="Faye">Ousmane Faye</name>
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<country name="Allemagne"><region name="Berlin"><name sortKey="Niedrig, Matthias" sort="Niedrig, Matthias" uniqKey="Niedrig M" first="Matthias" last="Niedrig">Matthias Niedrig</name>
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<name sortKey="Taveira, Nuno" sort="Taveira, Nuno" uniqKey="Taveira N" first="Nuno" last="Taveira">Nuno Taveira</name>
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<country name="Suisse"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nax, Heinrich H" sort="Nax, Heinrich H" uniqKey="Nax H" first="Heinrich H" last="Nax">Heinrich H. Nax</name>
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<country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Bogoch, Isaac I" sort="Bogoch, Isaac I" uniqKey="Bogoch I" first="Isaac I" last="Bogoch">Isaac I. Bogoch</name>
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<name sortKey="Khan, Kamran" sort="Khan, Kamran" uniqKey="Khan K" first="Kamran" last="Khan">Kamran Khan</name>
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<country name="Suède"><region name="Svealand"><name sortKey="Tatem, Andrew J" sort="Tatem, Andrew J" uniqKey="Tatem A" first="Andrew J" last="Tatem">Andrew J. Tatem</name>
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<country name="Afrique du Sud"><noRegion><name sortKey="De Oliveira, Tulio" sort="De Oliveira, Tulio" uniqKey="De Oliveira T" first="Tulio" last="De Oliveira">Tulio De Oliveira</name>
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HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000356 | SxmlIndent | more

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{{Explor lien
   |wiki=    Wicri/Asie
   |area=    AustralieFrV1
   |flux=    Main
   |étape=   Exploration
   |type=    RBID
   |clé=     PMC:5332542
   |texte=   Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study
}}

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Serveur d'exploration sur les relations entre la France et l'Australie

Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study

Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study

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	Serveur d'exploration sur les relations entre la France et l'Australie
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